One of the rules I have for entering a trade is, “I understand the set up for the trade that I am about to enter.” Despite this rule, I realize that I have never taken the time to actually write down exactly what those trade set-ups and entries look like on the SMP platform. Wow, that’s pretty shocking. How have I not done this yet? I should be doing this on an ongoing basis. So that settles it: my mission over the coming days and weeks is to specifically write, diagram, and (hopefully!) screen-shot successful trades that exemplify exactly what I’m looking for in trades. My hope and belief is that as I write out more and more of these set-ups, I will recognize them better when I see them, I will stay OUT of trades that don’t fit the criteria, my approach towards each of the trades will be refined, and my overall trading will improve dramatically. Today I am just going to start with one very simple trade.
Disclaimer: This blog only represents my opinion. Although my opinions are based on what I have learned at Fx365i, none of this necessarily represents the official views of the institute.
Bounce Off Average Price:
- When this trade works out, it can lead to awesome trades. Very simply, if price has moved significantly away from an accumulation area and then reaches a larger average price line, if it appears to be bouncing cleanly off that average price, I believe you must GET IN QUICKLY!
- If you wait too long, and the bounce is aggressive, then all of a sudden there are 15 or 20 pips of risk. To use our bus stop analogy, if you get on quickly, you’re along for the ride. If you wait too long, you’re either a) going to take a big dumb risk and try and jump on the back bumper of the bus (chase the trade), or b) get left at the bus stop sucking fumes as the bus takes off.
- One key to entering this trade is keeping up with measuring. It is not every day that we see a perfect 90 pips between the dot on the hour that price just rotated off and an average price line. More frequently, we will be somewhere in the 90 pip ballpark. Maybe we’ve only run about 82-85 from the dot, but if you measure from the high to the average price, it’s 108 pips.
- As such, I believe that once we’ve run 90’ish pips and are possibly getting an exact bounce off average price, you can’t hesitate to get in. The worst case scenario is to take a small negative (stop should be no more than roughly a pip off average price). If you have 5 pips of risk vs a 30 pip profit target, that’s an outstanding 6:1 ratio. On top of that, a clean bounce off average price can often result in a much larger run, so you may even have better than a 6:1 ratio. Pretty awesome!
- I’m trying to refine my technique for when to exit this trade. The image above is shows a trade I was in recently where I got solid entry off average price. I got in 4 pips from the bottom (which was exactly at average price). My current rule is that if it doesn’t give me a strong initial bounce, then if I see a small positive, I’m getting out. On that trade, I took a +5 because price did not move much for the first couple of minutes after I entered the trade. Then, on the same 5 minute candle, the trade ran 20+ pips. After an 11 pip breath to begin the next candle, price pushed up to the point where I could have taken a 40+ pip trade (in less than 10 minutes) based on my entry.
- One reason I got out quickly on this trade was because we had already tested that same daily average price 1 day earlier. This made me believe we might be ready to blow through it this time.
- One reason why I’m somewhat willing to get out with these small positives is I’m concerned about the market just taking a minuscule breath and then smashing hard through average price before breathing back.
- On one hand, I need to realize that if we have run 90 and are now hitting a significant average price, there is a great chance we will see at least a 30 pip breath. As I mentioned earlier, a 6:1 or better reward to risk ratio is incredible.
- On the flip side, from an overall money management viewpoint, if I end up taking a fair number of +5’s along with a few -5’s – and put those together with the occasional +30 or more, that’s a long-term winning recipe.
- I have to admit though, it’s really stinks to get out of a trade just to watch it run straight to my profit target 30 or 60 pips away when I hadexcellent entry into the trade.
- I’m trying to decide whether it’s better to a) play it more conservatively by taking the little +5’s and dealing with the risk that I’m about watch the market run 60 pips in my direction, or b) be more aggressive and let the trades play out while sticking my stop right under the average price so that I KNOW that I was wrong in the trade. I would take more negatives, but I would also see more 20+ pip trades. I’m really torn on figuring out which way to play this.
Well, “Bounce off Average Price” is the first trade I have mapped out like this. Hopefully there will be several more to come over the coming weeks. As always, all traders’ thoughts and comments are tremendously appreciated. Please feel free to contact me at email@example.com – I’d love to hear from you.
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